{"id":3609,"date":"2023-08-14T12:09:56","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T15:09:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/elcanillita.info\/press\/?p=3609"},"modified":"2023-08-14T12:24:45","modified_gmt":"2023-08-14T15:24:45","slug":"primeras-conclusiones-sobre-las-paso","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/elcanillita.info\/press\/2023\/08\/14\/primeras-conclusiones-sobre-las-paso\/","title":{"rendered":"Primeras conclusiones sobre las PASO"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>por Enrique Guillermo Avogadro<\/strong><br><br>Buenos Aires, 14\/08\/2023<br><br>\u00b7 La sociedad argentina vir\u00f3 fuertemente a la centro-derecha, harta de los modos del kirchnerismo y de su proyecto pauperizador. Casi el 60% de los votos v\u00e1lidos repudi\u00f3 el modelo populista y autoritario que encarn\u00f3 el kirchnerismo en los \u00faltimos 20 a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"501\" src=\"https:\/\/elcanillita.info\/press\/images\/2023\/08\/kirchd_20230814.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3610\" srcset=\"https:\/\/elcanillita.info\/press\/images\/2023\/08\/kirchd_20230814.jpg 600w, https:\/\/elcanillita.info\/press\/images\/2023\/08\/kirchd_20230814-300x251.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 El peronismo sufri\u00f3 la peor derrota desde su fundaci\u00f3n. El kirchnerismo perdi\u00f3 en su provincia-cuna y la cantidad de votos que hab\u00eda logrado tradicionalmente en el Conurbano bonaerense, base de su poder desde 2003, cay\u00f3 verticalmente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 Sergio Massa y su c\u00f3nyuge, Malena Galmarini, perdieron en su propio distrito electoral, Tigre, pese a todo lo que intentaron para frenar a su contendiente, incluyendo presiones violentas sobre quienes acompa\u00f1aban a \u00e9ste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 Se confirm\u00f3 que los grandes aparatos pol\u00edticos y su inmensa disponibilidad de fondos, personificados en Sergio Massa y en Horacio Rodr\u00edguez Larreta, dejaron de asegurar triunfos, ya que ambos cayeron ante adversarios much\u00edsimos m\u00e1s modestos en materia de recursos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 Se confirm\u00f3 que las encuestas, como en todo el mundo, fallan estrepitosamente, demostrando que ya no sirven como elementos para el an\u00e1lisis predictivo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 Se confirm\u00f3 que todas las lealtades pol\u00edticas, esas que hac\u00edan que se votara lo mismo que el abuelo y el padre, han desaparecido, convertidas en adhesiones l\u00edquidas; s\u00f3lo quedan en pie aqu\u00e9llas relacionadas con el f\u00fatbol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 Se confirm\u00f3 que los resultados de las elecciones provinciales, celebradas este a\u00f1o, anticipadas por los gobernadores precavidos, no resultan transpolables al escenario nacional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 Se confirm\u00f3 que La Libertad Avanza es un proyecto pol\u00edtico personal de Javier Milei, y no se apoya en los candidatos locales, que sufrieron fuertes derrotas en las provincias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 El \u201cplan platita\u201d y sus derivados \u2013colchones, bicicletas, chapas y dinero liso y llano- volvieron a resultaron in\u00fatiles para el Gobierno, tal como hab\u00eda sucedido en las legislativas de 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 Resulta indispensable que Milei y Patricia Bullrich negocien alg\u00fan sistema de alianzas que permita derrotar a Axel Kiciloff en la Provincia de Buenos Aires, para impedir que la transforme en el bunker para la resistencia violenta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 A partir del domingo, la mayor inc\u00f3gnita es qu\u00e9 har\u00e1 el ministro Aceitoso Massa para que el Gobierno sobreviva hasta el 10 de diciembre. Es altamente probable que el tan maltrecho kirchnerismo le exija mayores desquicios econ\u00f3micos para intentar recuperar votos de cara a octubre y noviembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 El Directorio del FMI, que a\u00fan no ha aprobado el acuerdo al que llegaron sus funcionarios con el Aceitoso, es casi seguro que diferir\u00e1 ese esencial paso, que liberar\u00eda los US$ 7.500 millones necesarios para cancelar los vencimientos del a\u00f1o hasta tener sentados en la mesa a los representantes de la oposici\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 Si los n\u00fameros de las PASO se repitieran en octubre, Javier Milei se convertir\u00e1 en Presidente con el apoyo de Uni\u00f3n por la Patria, b\u00e1sicamente porque lo suponen m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil y prev\u00e9n que la gobernabilidad ser\u00eda fr\u00e1gil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00b7 Si La Libertad Avanza logra algunos senadores y una cifra parecida a 40 diputados, obtendr\u00e1 un poder de negociaci\u00f3n grande entre los dos principales bloques; sin embargo, dada la procedencia pol\u00edtica de los candidatos que lleva \u00e9stos no resultan demasiado fiables.<br><br><small>\u00a9 Copyright 2023 Enrique Guillermo Avogadro<br>\u00a9 2023 ElCanillita.info \/ SalaStampa.Eu, servicio mundial de prensa<\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El peronismo sufri\u00f3 la peor derrota desde su fundaci\u00f3n. El kirchnerismo perdi\u00f3 en su provincia-cuna y la cantidad de votos que hab\u00eda logrado tradicionalmente en el Conurbano bonaerense, base de su poder desde 2003, cay\u00f3 verticalmente.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3610,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[108,70,11,23,25],"tags":[29],"class_list":["post-3609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogdiario","category-actualidad","category-america-del-sur","category-politica","category-sociedad","tag-argentina","entry","double"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Primeras conclusiones sobre las PASO - ElCanillita.Info<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"El peronismo sufri\u00f3 la peor derrota desde su fundaci\u00f3n. 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